The Signal And The Noise Description: "One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.


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Genre : Political Science
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN-13 : 9781101595954
Copyright Year : 2012-09-27
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Superforecasting Description: A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.


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Genre : Business & Economics
Publisher : Crown
ISBN-13 : 9780804136709
Copyright Year : 2015-09-29
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Signal To Noise Description: Magic will break your heart. Mexico City, 1988: Meche is fifteen, awkward, and obsessed with music. Her world revolves around her two misfit friends, Sebastian and Daniela, and a stack of records. Then Meche discovers how to turn music into magic, and things takes a turn for the strange... Mexico City, 2009: Meche returns home for her estranged father’s funeral. Her family are trouble enough, but when she runs into Sebastian, long-buried childhood memories resurface. What really happened back then – and is there any magic left?


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Genre : Fiction
Publisher : Solaris
ISBN-13 : 9781849978903
Copyright Year : 2015-02-10
File Format : All Formats
File Download/Read : 272
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Signal To Noise Description: A film director is dying of cancer. His greatest film would have told the story of a European village as the last hour of 999 AD approached—bringing Armageddon. Now that story will never be told. But he’s still working it out in his head, making a film that no one will ever see.


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Genre : Comics & Graphic Novels
Publisher : Dark Horse Comics
ISBN-13 : 9781630089658
Copyright Year : 2016-11-30
File Format : All Formats
File Download/Read : 96
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Signal And Noise Description: DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div


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Genre : History
Publisher : Duke University Press
ISBN-13 : 0822341085
Copyright Year : 2008-03-31
File Format : All Formats
File Download/Read : 313
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Naked Statistics Stripping The Dread From The Data Description: “Brilliant, funny . . . the best math teacher you never had.”—San Francisco Chronicle Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions. And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.


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Genre : Mathematics
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN-13 : 9780393089820
Copyright Year : 2013-01-07
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The Financial Rules For New College Graduates Invest Before Paying Off Debt And Other Tips Your Professors Didn T Teach You Description: An indispensable guide for any recent graduate that provides simple, easy-to-follow rules for making smart personal finance choices during the first decade of one's career. • Demonstrates how simple choices, especially in the years after college, can guarantee (barring misfortunes such as catastrophic illness or drug addiction) a lifelong, healthy relationship with money • Illustrates how to apply the attitudes inherent in modesty, skepticism, and optimism to all financial decision-making, both upon graduating and in the future • Includes a math refresher for understanding the basic principles of interest rates, credit card debt, investment, and retirement savings • Demystifies without boring, simplifies without condescending to, and above all highlights the relevance and practical applications of financial planning during one's first ten years out of school


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Genre : Business & Economics
Publisher : ABC-CLIO
ISBN-13 : 9781440861062
Copyright Year : 2018-04-12
File Format : All Formats
File Download/Read : 209
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Advanced Signal Processing And Digital Noise Reduction Description: Bayesian Estimation and classification. Hidden markov models. Wiener filters. Kalman and adaptive least squared error filters.


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Genre : Technology & Engineering
Publisher : Vieweg+Teubner Verlag
ISBN-13 : UCSD:31822023423569
Copyright Year : 1996-05
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File Download/Read : 397
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The Physics Of Wall Street Description: A Harvard scholar argues that mathematical models can provide solutions to current economic challenges, explaining that the economic meltdown of 2008 was based on a misunderstanding of scientific models rather than on the models themselves.


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Genre : Business & Economics
Publisher : Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN-13 : 9780547317274
Copyright Year : 2013
File Format : All Formats
File Download/Read : 286
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Signal To Noise Description: Jack Potter puts computer cryptography to work for the highest bidder: sometimes for private corporations, sometimes for the government. Sometimes the work is legal; if not, Jack simply raises his price. But one day, Jack discovers something cloaked in the hiss of background radiation streaming past the Earth from deep space: a message from an alien civilization. One that's eager to do business with humanity -- and its representative. Before he knows it, Jack has entered into a partnership that will open a Pandora's Box of potential profit and loss. The governments, the multinationals, and mysterious players more powerful still, all want a piece of the action -- and they're willing to kill, even wage war, to get it. Now Jack is entangled shifting web of deceit and intrigue in which no one, not even his closest friends, can be trusted. For Earth's cloak-and-dagger business practices are writ large in the heavens...and hostile takeovers are just as common across light years as they are across boardroom tables.


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Genre : Fiction
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN-13 : 0380792923
Copyright Year : 1999-06-01
File Format : All Formats
File Download/Read : 400
Price : FREE